Should Investors Get on the BLBD Bus? Blue Bird Delivers Record Fiscal 2024 Results and Raises 2025 Guidance

Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ: BLBD), a leader in electric and low-emission school buses, delivered record-breaking financial results for fiscal 2024, surpassing guidance and setting an optimistic tone for 2025. With increased demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and significant growth in revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and unit sales, Blue Bird continues to solidify its position as a market leader in alternative-powered buses.

Key Highlights of Fiscal 2024

• Net Sales: $1.35 billion, a 19% increase year-over-year.
• Adjusted EBITDA: $183 million, more than doubling last year’s $88 million, with a margin of 13.6%.
• Electric Buses Sold: Over 700 units, a 30% increase from 2023, driven by demand through the EPA’s Clean School Bus Program.
• Unit Sales: 9,000 buses sold, up 6% from the previous year.
• Order Backlog: More than 4,800 units, a 6% increase year-over-year.
• Adjusted Net Income: $115 million, tripling from 2023.

CEO Phil Horlock celebrated the company’s strong performance, stating, “The Blue Bird team continues to exceed expectations, driving productivity improvements, growing market demand, and expanding our leadership in alternative-powered buses.”

Electric Bus Momentum

Blue Bird is making substantial strides in the electric vehicle space. The company delivered over 700 electric buses in 2024, and with continued funding from the EPA’s Clean School Bus Program, Blue Bird expects sustained growth in EV demand, with plans to scale production to meet delivery deadlines through mid-2026.

Guidance for Fiscal 2025

Blue Bird raised its fiscal 2025 guidance, projecting:

• • Net Revenue: $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $190 million to $210 million (13.6% – 14.0% margin)
  • Adjusted Free Cash Flow: $40 million to $60 million (includes ~$50 million of extraordinary CAPEX related to manufacturing expansion)

The company also raised its long-term profit outlook, targeting adjusted EBITDA margins of 15%+ on approximately $2 billion in revenue.

Challenges Ahead

Despite its strong performance, Blue Bird faces challenges, including supply chain constraints and inflationary pressures on material costs. The company anticipates relatively low EV production in early 2025 due to infrastructure planning delays.

Should Investors Consider Blue Bird?

Blue Bird’s impressive growth trajectory and leadership in the electric and alternative-powered bus market make it a compelling option for investors. The company’s ability to adapt to market demands, manage supply chain challenges, and maintain profitability underscores its potential.

However, potential investors should consider ongoing risks, such as inflationary pressures and dependency on subsidies like the EPA’s Clean School Bus Program. With these factors in mind, Blue Bird’s record performance and strategic initiatives position it as a company worth monitoring closely.

Investor Outlook

As Blue Bird continues to scale its EV production and capitalize on government programs, its outlook remains strong. The company’s solid financial footing, innovative product offerings, and focus on sustainability make it an attractive choice for investors looking to capitalize on the growing demand for clean transportation solutions.

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.