Promise For Cyber Monday? Black Friday Online Sales Shine, In-Store Traffic Struggles

Black Friday shopping trends underscored a continued shift in consumer behavior, with online sales outperforming in-store traffic. While the broader US consumer landscape remains resilient, supported by a strong labor market, higher asset prices, and lingering savings, challenges such as inflation, higher interest rates, and post-pandemic adjustments persist.

However, some key takeaways and trends from the start to holiday shopping season were observed:

Online Sales Dominate: According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, Black Friday online sales surged 14.6% year-over-year (y/y), significantly outpacing in-store sales, which rose a modest 0.7%. Adobe Analytics reported record online spending of ~$10.8Bn, a 10.2% increase from previous year.

Retail Sales Growth: Total retail sales increased 3.4% y/y on Black Friday, slightly above Mastercard’s earlier holiday forecast of 3.2% growth. Notable categories included jewelry, electronics, and apparel.

In-Store Challenges: Sluggish foot traffic highlighted the ongoing impact of extended promotional periods, with consumers potentially holding out for deeper discounts as the holiday season progresses.

Consumer Trends: While bifurcation remains a prominent theme—lower-income households feeling the pinch and higher-income households trading down—there is a broader trend of cautious spending amid economic uncertainties.

Shopping habits continue to evolve, with digital platforms continuing to capture a larger share of holiday spending. Retailers may need to refine in-store strategies to better compete with the convenience and deals offered online. This online strength is expected to continue into today’s start of “cyber holiday shopping” as Cyber Monday is underway!