PRISM Economics Brief: CPI, PPI and Jobless Claims Reported This Week with Inflation Continuing to Rise, Fed Rate Cuts Come Back Into Question

September headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in hotter than expected at 0.2% which has now increased the annual inflation rate to 2.4%, stalling inflation progress. Annual core CPI rose for the first time since March 2023 to 3.3%. Shelter and food were the largest contributors to the m/m increase. As CPI was reported higher than anticipated, analysts are expecting 25bps rate cut in November. Meanwhile, September headline Producer Price Index (PPI) came in cooler and was reported unchanged while economists had expected a 0.1% rise.

Additionally, new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly surged in the first week of October. Due to Hurricane Helene impacts, jobless claims are still expected to rise.